CME Scoreboard
Prediction for CME (2024-10-02T14:24:00-CME-001)
CME Observed Time: 2024-10-02T14:24ZiSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/33688/-1
CME Note: This CME is visible to the S/SE in SOHO LASCO C2/C3 and in a few frames of STEREO A imagery. The source is an eruption and subsequent M3.2 flare from AR 3842 (S18E09) starting around 2024-10-02T13:30Z as seen in SDO AIA 131, 171, 193, 304. There is a data gap in STEREO A COR2 imagery from 2024-10-02T14:08Z to 2024-10-02T17:08Z, in addition to being in campaign mode for the Parker Solar Probe perihelion pass which affects COR2A image quality and cadence. This CME would have been a good candidate for the observed 2024-10-06T06:55Z shock arrival at L1, however it had much slower speed than the observed solar wind speed of the shock at L1 (over 500 km/s), so the likelier candidate for the 2024-10-06T06:55Z arrival is the much faster 2024-10-03T12:48Z CME. Hence, the 2024-10-02T14:24Z CME may have been overtaken/swept by the faster 2024-10-03T12:48Z CME.
CME was not detected at Earth.
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2024-10-06T06:33Z
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 2.0 - 4.0
Prediction Method: Average of all Methods
Prediction Method Note:
This is the auto generated average of all submitted predictions for this CMELead Time: -2246.40 hour(s)
Difference: -----
Prediction submitted by Auto Generated (CCMC) on 2025-01-07T20:57Z
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